The Anticipation bonus to ranged defence is 1+ 10% of base ranged defence (not including shields, Dodge and any trait or morale effects). So, with 20 base defence and a range of 6 tiles, the bonus would be (1+2=3)x6 = 18 added to 20 for 38 ranged defence (+ any Dodge or morale/trait bonuses).
I think the old Dodge was too under-powerful. It was alluring, since it offered some free defence that was approximately equivalent to a shield, but all it took was a tiny scratch to the armour (with no hit point damage) and it was gone for good. That didn’t make much conceptual sense, to suddenly and permanently lose 10-20 melee and ranged defence because of an armour scratch.
I always thought maybe the strength of the bonus should gradually be reduced by a % equal to the % of hit points that had been lost.
Given that everyone’s been up in arms about the vulnerability of their ranged fighters, and indeed all of their fighters in the face of overwhelming hordes of enemies (including pikemen benefitting from multiple surround bonuses), a persistent Dodge bonus seems quite reasonable (especially since it is based on an initiative that now more readily drops because of fatigue imposed by enemy attacks).
It’s seemed to me that fighters with a heater shield, high initiative, the Dodge perk and 10-15 base melee defence tend to be hit only on odd occasions in typical melee fights (even when in contact with ~3 enemy melee fighters), but that they become suddenly super-vulnerable when there are lots of pikemen behind those enemies. That’s when you realize you need Underdog instead of a sexier offensive perk.