I am not arguing that disengaging should be a risky option. Rather I am wondering if there shouldn’t be more tactical info (or the UI improvements, as you yourself have noted) in regard to disengagement, so I can make a tactical decision whether or not I should risk the actual disengaging.
If I am going to risk 3 hits from a two-hander instead of 3 bites, then I am not going to risk it. Especially when all attacks will have 75% to hit me. However, if my chance to get out is around 40% I might, even if it means I may get hit with a two-hander. That’s the difference it’d make for me.
There is no fixed chance for this; your opponents simply get a free attack, and their chance to hit is the same as if they’d do a regular attack when you remain where you are.