I think caravan contracts are the most random in the game… you can encounter no enemies at all and then you can get rekt by 30 orcs/goblins. Even more fun is when you get attacked by multiple parties at once. Just yesterday 10 direwolves paired up with 20 nachzehrers. I remember another contract where I got attacked by 5 parties after another.
I really only take caravan contracts anymore if they are going to a decent settlement, meaning either they sell trade goods or to a military settlement that sells armors on the (regular) market. It might just be my imagination but it happened to me a few times that I got some really cheap armor/weapons after finishing one of those contracts. e.g. 50% durability mail hauberk for 500c, 40% pike, stuff like that.
As a general rule, if the caravan will move through a huge area of forest/swamp I don’t take them. At least not if my company doesn’t have pathfinder yet.
Goblins in swamps are probably the most deadly thing in the game.
